Population change and food availability in Tanzania; a multilevel modeling approach: the case of Ukerewe Islands
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Date
2005-08
Authors
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
University of Dar es salaam
Abstract
Primary data from a survey of 150- rural households in Ukcrewe district, one of the
densely populated rural districts in Tanzania mainland, were used to examine the
relationship between socio-demographic variables and household food availability.
The study employed the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) in the construction of
households’ possession indices which was then used as the proxy determinant of food
availability. The 2-level random intercept model with 3-ordered categorical response
variable was used in the estimation of coefficient of effects. The findings show that
household seasonal migrants, education attainment by household members, farm land
resources and life cycle of household at different stage of development that was
measured by the age of household head, were significant. It was further noted that
seasonal migrants and farm land were likely to reduce the odds ratio of a household of
being extremely poor or poor. An increase of a person with secondary or post-secondary
education in a household reduced the odds ratio of a household of being extremely poor
by 52.8 percent as compared to 19 percent odds ratio reduction by increase of non
educated household member. The findings show that the young aged head of household
was 3 and 5 times less likely to be extremely poor as compared to old and middle age
headed household respectively.
The data could not allow any viable conclusion to be drawn from variables such as;
household sex ratio, sex of household head, size of the household and proportion of
household permanent migrants because they were statistically insignificant
Description
The Degree of Master of Arts (Statistics)
Keywords
Population growth, Population change, Food availability, Multilevel modeling approach, Ukerewe Islands