Browsing by Author "Burgess, Neil D."

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Carbon storage, structure and composition of miombo woodlands in Tanzania’s Eastern Arc Mountains
(Blackwell Publishing Ltd, 2011) Shirima, Deo D.; Munishi, Pantaleo K. T.; Lewis, Simon L.; Burgess, Neil D.; Marshall, Andrew R.; Balmford, A.; Swetnam, Ruth D.; Zahabu, E.M
We determine the aboveground biomass and carbon stor- age (ABGC) of trees and the herbaceous layer in miombo woodland in the Eastern Arc Mountains (EAM) of Tanza- nia. In four 1-ha sample plots in Nyanganje and Kitonga Forests, we measured all trees ‡10 cm diameter alongside height and wood mass density. The plots contained an average of 20 tree species ha )1 (range 11–29) and 344 stems ha )1 (range 281–382) with Shannon diversity values of 1.05 and 1.25, respectively. We weighted nine previously published woody savannah allometric models based on whether: (i) the model was derived from the same geographical region; (ii) the model included tree height ⁄ - wood mass density in addition to stem diameter; and (iii) sample size was used to fit the model. The weighted mean ABGC storage from the nine models range from 13.5 ± 2 to 29.8 ± 5 Mg ha )1 . Measured ABGC storage in the herbaceous layer, using the wet combustion method, adds 0.55 ± 0.02 Mg C ha )1 . Estimates suggest that EAM miombo woodlands store a range of 13–30 Mg ha )1 of carbon. Although the estimates suggest that miombo woodlands store significant quantities of carbon, caution is required as this is the first estimate based on in situ data.
Conservation implications of deforestation across an elevational gradient in the Eastern Arc Mountains, Tanzania
(Elsevier, 2009-11) Burgess, Neil D.; Mbilinyi, Boniface; Gereau, Roy E.; Hall, Jaclyn; Lovett, Jon
Deforestation is a major threat to the conservation of biodiversity, especially within global centers of endemism for plants and animals. Elevation, the major environmental gradient in mountain regions of the world, produces a rapid turnover of species, where some species may exist only in narrow elevational ranges. We use newly compiled datasets to assess the conservation impact of deforestation on threatened trees across an elevational gradient within the Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania. The Eastern Arc has suffered an estimated 80% total loss in historical forest area and has lost 25% of forest area since 1955. Forest loss has not been even across all elevations. The upper montane zone (>1800 m) has lost 52% of its paleoecological forest area, 6% since 1955. Conversely, the submontane habitat (800–1200 m) has lost close to 93% of its paleoecological extent, 57% since 1955. A list of 123 narrowly endemic Tanzanian East- ern Arc tree taxa with defined and restricted elevational ranges was compiled and analyzed in regard to mountain block locations, elevational range, and area of forest within each 100 m elevational band. Half of these taxa have lost more than 90% of paleoecological forest habitat in their elevational range. When elevational range is considered, 98 (80%) of these endemic forest trees should have their level of extinc- tion threat elevated on the IUCN Red List. Conservation efforts in montane hotspots need to consider the extent of habitat changes both within and across elevations and target conservation and restoration efforts throughout these ecosystems’ entire elevational ranges.
Deforestation in an African biodiversity hotspot: extent, variation and the effectiveness of protected areas
(Elsevier, 2013-06) Green, Jonathan M.H.; Larrosa, Cecilia; Burgess, Neil D.; Balmford, Andrew; Johnston, Alison; Mbilinyi, Boniface P.; Platts, Philip J.; Coad, Lauren
The Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania show exceptional endemism that is threatened by high anthro- pogenic pressure leading to the loss of natural habitat. Using a novel habitat conversion model, we pres- ent a spatially explicit analysis of the predictors of forest and woodland conversion in the Eastern Arc over 25 years. Our results show that 5% (210 km 2 ) of evergreen forest and 43% (2060 km 2 ) of miombo woodland was lost in the Eastern Arc Mountains between 1975 and 2000. Important predictors of habitat conversion included distance to natural habitat edge, topography and measures of remoteness. The main conservation strategy in these mountains for the past 100 years has been to develop a network of pro- tected areas. These appear to have reduced rates of habitat loss and most remaining evergreen forest is now within protected areas. However, the majority of miombo woodland, an important source of eco- system services, lies outside formal protected areas, where additional conservation strategies may be needed.
Detecting and predicting forest degradation: a comparison of ground surveys and remote sensing in Tanzanian forests
(Plants, People, Planet (PPP), 2021-01-08) Ahrends, Antje; Bulling, Mark T.; Platts, Philip J.; Swetnam, Ruth; Ryan, Casey; Doggart, Nike; Hollingsworth, Peter M.; Marchant, Robert; Balmford, Andrew; Harris, David J.; Gross-Camp, Nicole; Sumbi, Peter; Munishi, Pantaleo; Madoffe, Seif; Mhoro, Boniface; Leonard, Charles; Bracebridge, Claire; Doody, Kathryn; Wilkins, Victoria; Owen, Nisha; Marshall, Andrew R.; Schaafsma, Marije; Pfliegner, Kerstin; Jones, Trevor; Robinson, James; Topp-Jørgensen, Elmer; Brink, Henry; Burgess, Neil D.
Tropical forest degradation is widely recognised as a driver of biodiversity loss and a major source of carbon emissions. However, in contrast to deforestation, more gradual changes from degradation are challenging to detect, quantify and monitor. Here, we present a field protocol for rapid, area-standardised quantifications of forest condition, which can also be implemented by non-specialists. Using the ex- ample of threatened high-biodiversity forests in Tanzania, we analyse and predict degradation based on this method. We also compare the field data to optical and radar remote-sensing datasets, thereby conducting a large-scale, independent test of the ability of these products to map degradation in East Africa from space. • Our field data consist of 551 ‘degradation’ transects collected between 1996 and 2010, covering >600 ha across 86 forests in the Eastern Arc Mountains and coastal forests. • Degradation was widespread, with over one-third of the study forests—mostly protected areas—having more than 10% of their trees cut. Commonly used opti- cal remote-sensing maps of complete tree cover loss only detected severe im- pacts (≥25% of trees cut), that is, a focus on remotely-sensed deforestation would have significantly underestimated carbon emissions and declines in forest quality. Radar-based maps detected even low impacts (<5% of trees cut) in ~90% of cases. The field data additionally differentiated types and drivers of harvesting, with spa- tial patterns suggesting that logging and charcoal production were mainly driven by demand from major cities. • Rapid degradation surveys and radar remote sensing can provide an early warning and guide appropriate conservation and policy responses. This is particularly im- portant in areas where forest degradation is more widespread than deforestation, such as in eastern and southern Africa.
From local scenarios to national maps: a participatory framework for envisioning the future of Tanzania
(Resilience Alliance Inc, 2016) Capitani, Claudia; Mukama, Kusaga; Mbilinyi, Boniface; Malugu, Isaac O.; Munishi, Pantaleo K. T.; Burgess, Neil D.; Platts, Philip J.; Sallu, Susannah M.; Marchant, Robert
Tackling societal and environmental challenges requires new approaches that connect top-down global oversight with bottom-up subnational knowledge. We present a novel framework for participatory development of spatially explicit scenarios at national scale that model socioeconomic and environmental dynamics by reconciling local stakeholder perspectives and national spatial data. We illustrate results generated by this approach and evaluate its potential to contribute to a greater understanding of the relationship between development pathways and sustainability. Using the lens of land use and land cover changes, and engaging 240 stakeholders representing subnational (seven forest management zones) and the national level, we applied the framework to assess alternative development strategies in the Tanzania mainland to the year 2025, under either a business as usual or a green development scenario. In the business as usual scenario, no productivity gain is expected, cultivated land expands by ~ 2% per year (up to 88,808 km2), with large impacts on woodlands and wetlands. Despite legal protection, encroachment of natural forest occurs along reserve borders. Additional wood demand leads to degradation, i.e., loss of tree cover and biomass, up to 80,426 km2 of wooded land. The alternative green economy scenario envisages decreasing degradation and deforestation with increasing productivity (+10%) and implementation of payment for ecosystem service schemes. In this scenario, cropland expands by 44,132 km2 and the additional degradation is limited to 35,778 km2. This scenario development framework captures perspectives and knowledge across a diverse range of stakeholders and regions. Although further effort is required to extend its applicability, improve users’ equity, and reduce costs the resulting spatial outputs can be used to inform national level planning and policy implementation associated with sustainable development, especially the REDD+ climate mitigation strategy.
Getting ready for REDD+ in Tanzania: a case study of progress and challenges
(Fauna & Flora International, 2010) Dalsgaard, SØren; Funder, Mikkel; Hagelberg, Niklas; Harrison, Paul; Haule, Christognus; Kabalimu, Kekilia; Kilahama, Felician; Kilawe, Edward; Lewis, Simon L.; Lovett, Jon C.; Lyatuu, Gertrude; Marshall, Andrew R.; Meshack, Charles; Miles, Lera; Milledge, Simon A.H.; Munishi, Pantaleo K.T.; Nashanda, Evarist; Shirima, Deo; Swetnam, Ruth D.; Willcock, Simon; Williams, Andrew; Zahabu, Eliakim; Burgess, Neil D.; Bahane, Bruno; Clairs, Tim; Danielsen, Finn
The proposed mechanism for Reducing Emis- sions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+) offers significant potential for conserving forests to reduce negative impacts of climate change. Tanzania is one of nine pilot countries for the United Nations REDD Pro- gramme, receives significant funding from the Norwegian, Finnish and German governments and is a participant in the World Bank’s Forest Carbon Partnership Facility. In combination, these interventions aim to mitigate green-house gas emissions, provide an income to rural commu- nities and conserve biodiversity. The establishment of the UN-REDD Programme in Tanzania illustrates real-world challenges in a developing country. These include currently inadequate baseline forestry data sets (needed to calculate reference emission levels), inadequate government capacity and insufficient experience of implementing REDD+-type measures at operational levels. Additionally, for REDD+ to succeed, current users of forest resources must adopt new practices, including the equitable sharing of benefits that accrue from REDD+ implementation. These challenges are being addressed by combined donor support to im- plement a national forest inventory, remote sensing of forest cover, enhanced capacity for measuring, reporting and verification, and pilot projects to test REDD+ imple- mentation linked to the existing Participatory Forest Man- agement Programme. Our conclusion is that even in a country with considerable donor support, progressive forest policies, laws and regulations, an extensive network of managed forests and increasingly developed locally-based forest management approaches, implementing REDD+ pre- sents many challenges. These are being met by coordinated, genuine partnerships between government, non-government and community-based agencies.
Implementation and opportunity costs of reducing deforestation and forest degradation in Tanzania
(2011 Macmillan Publishers Limited, 2011) Fisher, Brendan; Lewis, Simon L.; Burgess, Neil D.; Malimbwi, Rogers E.; Munishi, Panteleo K.; Swetnam, Ruth D.; Turner, Kerry; Willcock, Simon; Balmford, Andrew
The Cancún Agreements provide strong backing for a REDDC (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) mechanism whereby developed countries pay developing ones for forest conservation1. REDDC has potential to simultaneously deliver cost-effective climate change mitigation and human development2–5. However, most REDDC analysis has used coarse-scale data, overlooked important opportunity costs to tropical forest users4,5 and failed to consider how to best invest funds to limit leakage, that is, merely displacing deforestation6. Here we examine these issues for Tanzania, a REDDCcountry, by comparing district-scale carbon losses from deforestation with the opportunity costs of carbon conservation. Opportunity costs are estimated as rents from both agriculture and charcoal production (the most important proximate causes of regional forest conversion7–9). As an alternativewe also calculate the implementation costs of alleviating the demand for forest conversion—thereby addressing the problem of leakage—by raising agricultural yields on existing cropland and increasing charcoal fuel-use efficiency. The implementation costs exceed the opportunity costs of carbon conservation (medians of US$6.50 versus US$3.90 per Mg CO2), so effective REDDC policies may cost more than simpler estimates suggest. However, even if agricultural yields are doubled, implementation is possible at the competitive price of US$12 per Mg CO2.
Measuring, modeling and mapping ecosystem services in the Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania
(SAGE, 2011) Fisher, Brendan; Turner, R. Kerry; Burgess, Neil D.; Swetnam, Ruth D.; Green, Jonathan; Green, Rhys E.; Kajembe, George; Kulindwa, Kassim; Lewis, Simon L.
In light of the significance that ecosystem service research is likely to play in linking conservation activities and human welfare, systematic approaches to measuring, modeling and mapping ecosystem services (and their value to society) are sorely needed. In this paper we outline one such approach, which we developed in order to understand the links between the functioning of the ecosystems of Tanzania’s Eastern Arc Mountains and their impact on human welfare at local, regional and global scales. The essence of our approach is the creation of a series of maps created using field-based or remotely sourced data, data- driven models, and socio-economic scenarios coupled with rule-based assumptions. Here we describe the construction of this spatial information and how it can help to shed light on the complex relationships between ecological and social systems. There are obvious difficulties in operationalizing this approach, but by highlighting those which we have encountered in our own case-study work, we have also been able to suggest some routes to overcoming these impediments.
Mixed method approaches to evaluate conservation impact: evidence from decentralized forest management in Tanzania
(Foundation for Environmental Conservation, 2014-06-01) Lund, Jens Friis; Burgess, Neil D.; Chamshama, Shabani A. O.; Dons, Klaus; Isango, Jack A.; Kajembe, George C.; Meilby, Henrik; Moyo, Francis; Ngaga, Yonika M.; Ngowi, Stephen E.; Njana, Marco A.; Mwakalukwa, Ezekiel E.; Skeie, Kathrine; Theilade, Ida; Treue, Thorsten
Nearly 10% of the world’s total forest area is formally owned by communities and indigenous groups, yet knowledge of the effects of decentralized forest management approaches on conservation (and livelihood) impacts remains elusive. In this paper, the conservation impact of decentralized forest management on two forests in Tanzania was evaluated using a mixed method approach. Current forest condition, forest increment and forest use patterns were assessed through forest inventories, and changes in forest disturbance levels before and after the implementation of decentralized forest management were assessed on the basis of analyses of Landsat images. This biophysical evidence was then linked to changes in actual management practices, assessed through records, interviews and participatory observations, to provide ameasure of the conservation impact of the policy change. Both forests in the study were found to be in good condition, and extraction was lower than overall forest increment. Divergent changes in forest disturbance levels were in evidence following the implementation of decentralized forest management. The evidence from records, interviews and participatory observations indicated that decentralized management had led to increased control of forest use and the observed divergence in forest disturbance levels appeared to be linked to differences in theway that village-level forest managers prioritized conservation objectives and forest-based livelihood strategies. The study illustrates that a mixed methods approach comprises a valid and promising way to evaluate impacts of conservation policies, even in the absence of control sites. By carefully linking policy outcomes to policy outputs, such an approach not onlyidentifies whether such policies work as intended, but also potential mechanisms.
REDD herrings or REDD menace: response to beymer-farris and bassett
(Elsevier, 2013-05-26) Munishi, Pantaleo; Burgess, Neil D.; Mwakalila, Shadrack; Marion, Pfeifer; Willcock, Simon; Shirima, Deo; Hamidu, Seki; Bulenga, George B; Jason, Rubens; Haji, Machano; Rob, Marchant
Norwegian funded REDD+ projects in Tanzania have attracted a lot of attention, as has the wider REDD+ policy that aims to reduce deforestation and degradation and enhance carbon storage in forests of the developing countries. One of these REDD+ projects, managed by WWF Tanzania, was criticised in a scientific paper published in GEC, and consequently in the global media, for being linked to attempted evictions of communities living in the Rufiji delta mangroves by the Government of Tanzania, allegedly to make the area ‘ready for REDD’. In this response, we show how this eviction event in Rufiji mangroves has a history stretching back over 100 years, has nothing to do with REDD+ or any policy changes by government, and is not in any way linked to the work of any WWF project in Tanzania. We also outline some of the broader challenges faced by REDD+ in Tanzania.
Towards a successful post COVID-19 transition of monitoring, evaluation, and learning in Complex Sustainability Science Research-to-Policy Projects
(MDPI, 2021-01) Sylvia Szabo; Brighton Nhau; Tsusaka, Takuji W.; Kadigi, Reuben M. J.; Payne, Tanya; Kangile, Joseph Rajabu; Park, Kwang Soon; Couto, Matheus; Runsten, Lisen; Burgess, Neil D.
There is an emerging body of literature focusing on the COVID-19 livelihoods and envi- ronmental impacts, as well as the effects of the pandemics on evidence generation. However, little attention has been paid to how COVID-19 has—and is likely to continue to—affect monitoring, evaluation, and learning (MEL) systems, specifically in the context of large sustainability science research-to-policy project consortia. Here, we provide a conceptual framework of MEL responsive- ness to COVID-19 effects and discuss the specific pathways to successful MEL transition. Using the UKRI GCRF TRADE Hub as a case study, we provide some examples of possible adjustments within the new context.
Towards regional, error-bounded landscape carbon storage estimates for data-deficient areas of the world
(PLOS ONE, 2012-09-14) Willcock, Simon; Phillips, Oliver L.; Platts, Philip J; Balmford, Andrew; Burgess, Neil D.; Lovett, Jon C.; Ahrends, Antje; Mbilinyi, Boniface; Lewis, Simon L.
Monitoring landscape carbon storage is critical for supporting and validating climate change mitigation policies. These may be aimed at reducing deforestation and degradation, or increasing terrestrial carbon storage at local, regional and global levels. However, due to data-deficiencies, default global carbon storage values for given land cover types such as ‘lowland tropical forest’ are often used, termed ‘Tier 1 type’ analyses by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Such estimates may be erroneous when used at regional scales. Furthermore uncertainty assessments are rarely provided leading to estimates of land cover change carbon fluxes of unknown precision which may undermine efforts to properly evaluate land cover policies aimed at altering land cover dynamics. Here, we present a repeatable method to estimate carbon storage values and associated 95% confidence intervals (CI) for all five IPCC carbon pools (aboveground live carbon, litter, coarse woody debris, belowground live carbon and soil carbon) for data-deficient regions, using a combination of existing inventory data and systematic literature searches, weighted to ensure the final values are regionally specific. The method meets the IPCC ‘Tier 2’ reporting standard. We use this method to estimate carbon storage over an area of33.9 million hectares of eastern Tanzania, reporting values for 30 land cover types. We estimate that this area stored 6.33 (5.92–6.74) Pg C in the year 2000. Carbon storage estimates for the same study area extracted from five published Africa-wide or global studies show a mean carbon storage value of ,50% of that reported using our regional values, with four of the five studies reporting lower carbon storage values. This suggests that carbon storage may have been underestimated for this region of Africa. Our study demonstrates the importance of obtaining regionally appropriate carbon storage estimates, and shows how such values can be produced for a relatively low investment.