Browsing by Author "Mbungu, Winfred"

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An economic comparison between alternative rice farming systems in Tanzania using a monte carlo simulation approach
(MDPI, 2020-07) Kadig, Ibrahim L.; Mutabazi, Khamaldin D.; Philip, Damas; Richardson, James W.; Bizimana, Jean-Claude; Mbungu, Winfred; Mahoo, Henry F.; Sieber, Stefan
Tanzania is the second-largest producer of rice (Oryza sativa) in Eastern, Central, and Southern Africa after Madagascar. Unfortunately, the sector has been performing poorly due to many constraints, including poor agricultural practices and climate variability. In addressing the challenge, the government is making substantial investments to speed the agriculture transformation into a more modernized, commercial, and highly productive and profitable sector. Our objective was to apply a Monte Carlo simulation approach to assess the economic feasibility of alternative rice farming systems operating in Tanzania while considering risk analysis for decision-makers with different risk preferences to make better management decisions. The rice farming systems in this study comprise rice farms using traditional practices and those using some or all of the recommended system of rice intensification (SRI) practices. The overall results show 2% and zero probability of net cash income (NCI) being negative for partial and full SRI adopters, respectively. Meanwhile, farmers using local and improved seeds have 66% and 60% probability of NCI being negative, correspondingly. Rice farms which applied fertilizers in addition to improved seeds have a 21% probability of negative returns. Additionally, net income for rice farms using local seeds was slightly worthwhile when the transaction made during the harvesting period compared to farms applied improved varieties due to a relatively high price for local seeds. These results help to inform policymakers and agencies promoting food security and eradication of poverty on the benefits of encouraging improved rice farming practices in the country. Despite climate variability, in Tanzania, it is still possible for rice farmers to increase food production and income through the application of improved technologies, particularly SRI management practices, which have shown a promising future.
The effect of nitrogen-fertilizer and optimal plant population on the profitability of maize plots in the Wami river sub-basin, Tanzania: a bio economic simulation approach
(Elsevier, 2021) Kadigi, Ibrahim L.; Richardson, James W.; Mutabazi, Khamaldin D.; Philip, Damas; Mourice, Sixbert K.; Mbungu, Winfred; Bizimana, Jean-Claude; Sieber, Stefan
Maize (Zea mays L.) is the essential staple in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and Tanzania in particular; the crop accounts for over 30% of the food production, 20% of the agricultural gross domestic product (GDP) and over 75% of the cereal consumption. Maize is grown under a higher risk of failure due to the over-dependence rain fed farming system resulting in low income and food insecurity among maize-based farmers. However, many practices, including conservation agriculture, soil and water conservation, resilient crop varieties, and soil fer tility management, are suggested to increase cereal productivity in Tanzania. Improving planting density, and the use of fertilizers are the immediate options recommended by Tanzania's government. In this paper, we evaluate the economic feasibility of the improved planting density (optimized plant population) and N-fertilizer crop management practices on maize net returns in semi-arid and sub-humid agro-ecological zones in the Wami River sub-Basin, Tanzania. We introduce a bio-economic simulation model using Monte Carlo simulation pro cedures to evaluate the economic viability of risky crop management practices so that the decision-maker can make better management decisions. The study utilizes maize yield data sets from two biophysical cropping system models, namely the APSIM and DSSAT. A total of 83 plots for the semi-arid and 85 plots for the sub humid agro-ecological zones consisted of this analysis. The crop management practices under study comprise the application of 40 kg N-fertilizer/ha and plant population of 3.3 plants/m2 . The study finds that the use of im proved plant population had the lowest annual net return with fertilizer application fetching the highest return. The two crop models demonstrated a zero probability of negative net returns for farms using fertilizer rates of 40 kg N/ha except for DSSAT, which observed a small probability (0.4%) in the sub-humid area. The optimized plant population presented 16.4% to 26.6% probability of negatives net returns for semi-arid and 14.6% to 30.2% probability of negative net returns for sub-humid zones. The results suggest that the application of fer tilizer practices reduces the risks associated with the mean returns, but increasing the plant population has a high probability of economic failure, particularly in the sub-humid zone. Maize sub-sector in Tanzania is pro jected to continue experiencing a significant decrease in yields and net returns, but there is a high chance that it will be better-off if proper alternatives are employed. Similar studies are needed to explore the potential of interventions highlighted in the ACRP for better decision-making.
Land Fragmentation, agricultural productivity and implications for agricultural investments in the Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania (SAGCOT) region, Tanzania
(Journal of Development and Agricultural Economics, 2017-01) Kadigi, Reuben MJ; Kashaigili, Japhet J; Sirima, Agnes; Kamau, Felix; Sikira, Anna; Mbungu, Winfred
There are polarized evidences of the impact of agricultural land fragmentation on land productivity. On the one hand there viewpoints which consider land fragmentation to harm agricultural productivity. On the other hand there are counter thoughts which view land fragmentation as a positive situation which allows farmers to cultivate many environmental zones, minimise production risk and optimise the schedule for cropping activities. We use the case of Ihemi cluster in the Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania (SAGCOT) to investigate the impact of land fragmentation on crop productivity. We furthermore discuss the nature and causes of land fragmentation in the SAGCOT region and its implication on the future structure of agricultural landholdings and welfare of smallholder farmers in the region. The results showed that the nature and level of fragmentation in the study area were the outcome of combined, rather than isolated influences of supply and demand driven factors. Overall, the results did not support the claim that fragmentation reduces land productivity. This then implies that land fragmentation should not always be considered as defective. There were evidences of increasing chunks of land owned by rich farmers and investors which increased the possibility for increased consolidation of agricultural land under large scale farming. However, the landholdings for smallholder farmers might become increasingly more fragmented as poor smallholder farmers continue selling their land holdings to rich farmers and investors. Releasing the SAGCOT region’s potential for agricultural development will require that smallholder farmers are helped to secure adequate and suitable land for farming, raise agricultural productivity, diversify their sources of income, and adopt good production practices. This requires setting up a strong base of investor - farmer synergies for inclusive agricultural growth.
Rapid environmental flow assessment for sustainable water resource management in Tanzania’s Lower Rufiji River Basin: a scoping review
(Heliyon, 2023) Kimambo, Offoro N.; Mbungu, Winfred; Massawe, Goodluck D.; Hamad, Amina A.; Ligate, Elly J.
The use of Environmental flow (e-Flow) assessment is a widely adopted approach to facilitate informed decision-making concerning sustainable management and utilization of water resources in river systems. The Lower Rufiji River Basin faces various developmental pressures from several sectors, including hydropower, mining, agriculture, livestock, fishing, and tourism, necessitating effective management of the sub-catchment area to prevent significant environmental impacts. Consequently, it is essential to acquire a comprehensive comprehension of the catchment’s at tributes, encompassing both climatic and non-climatic factors. Supported by e-Flow batch anal ysis of the available data at Stiegler’s Gorge using the global environmental flow calculator, a scoping review was conducted to determine the status of environmental flow in the lower Rufiji River basin. The findings suggest that, while there has been progress in understanding eFlow estimation, limited data and ecohydrological processes’ poor comprehension still present chal lenges. Hydrological and holistic methodologies are commonly employed in Tanzania; however, uncertainties remain, raising questions concerning trust between decision-making tools and water resource utilization by the public. Climate variability influences e-Flow in the Rufiji River Basin, and the projections under various scenarios indicate an increased temperature, varying rainfall, and humidity levels. Further, the area has been identified as a vulnerable “hotspot” where communities face greater climate stressor risks. With the existing and planned developmental projects in the basin, including hydroelectric dams, mining, agriculture, livestock, and fisheries, it is critical to assess e-Flow in the Lower Rufiji River basin to ensure resource sustainability. Advocating for preserving a dynamic environmental flow regime in rivers is recommended, considering the Rufiji River Basin’s habitat connectivity. The future research direction should be quantifying the contribution of base flow to the surface flow, and salinity dynamics in the Lower Rufiji River Basin, which can affect the Delta’s biodiversity.