Browsing by Author "Msongaleli, B. M."

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Impacts of climate variability and change on rainfed sorghum and maize: Implications for food security policy in Tanzania
(Canadian Center of Science and Education, 2015-04-15) Msongaleli, B. M.; Rwehumbiza, F.; Tumbo, S. D.; Kihupi, N.
Concern about food security has increased because of a changing climate, which poses a great threat to food crop productivity. Climate change projections from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and crop models were used to investigate the impacts of climate change on rain-fed cereal production. Calibrated and evaluated crop models simulated maize and sorghum yields over time periods and scenarios across central zone Tanzania with and without adaptation. Simulation outputs without adaptation showed predominant decrease and increase in maize and sorghum yields, respectively. The results showed that maize yields were predicted to decline between 1% and 25% across periods, representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and global circulation models (GCMs). However, sorghum yields were on average predicted to increase between 5% and 21%. Overall when adaptation is incorporated toward mid-century, yields are projected to increase for both crops. The yield projections variation between cereal crops highlights the importance of location and crop specific climate change impact assessments. Despite the uncertainties in predicting the impacts of climate change on rainfed crops, especially on cereals (maize and sorghum) which are important staple food crops in semi-arid Tanzania, the findings of this study enable policy makers to develop plans aimed at sustainable food security. In conclusion, the results demonstrate the presumption that sorghum productivity stands a better chance than maize under prospects of negative impacts from climate change in central zone Tanzania.
Integrated assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation in agriculture: the case study of the Wami River Sub-basin, Tanzania
(Springer Nature Switzerland AG, 2020) Tumbo, S. D.; Mutabazi, K. D.; Mourice, S. K.; Msongaleli, B. M.; Wambura, F. J.; Mzirai, O. B.; Kadigi, I. L.; Kahimba, F. C.; Mlonganile, P.; Ngongolo, H. K.; Sangalugembe, C.; Rao, K. P. C.; Valdivia, R. O.
This study evaluates the impacts of climate change and an adaptation strategy on agricul- ture in the Wami River sub-basin in Tanzania. This study uses the Agricultural Model Improvement and Inter-comparison Project (AgMIP) framework that integrates climate, crops and economic models and data using a novel multi-model approach for impact assess- ment of agricultural systems under current and future conditions. This study uses five Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5), two crop simulation models, and one economic impact assessment model. In this study, a representative agricultural path- ways (RAP) that characterises future condi- tions following ‘business-as-usual’ trends was developed and used to model future agricul- tural systems in the Wami River sub-basin. Results show that by mid-century, the maxi- mum and minimum temperatures will increase by 1.8–4.1 °C and 1.4–4.6 °C, respectively. Rainfall is predicted to be variable with some places projected to increase by 12%, while in other areas it is projected to decrease by 14– 28%. Maize yields under these conditions are projected to decrease by 5.3–40.7%. Results show that under current conditions, 50–60% of farm households are vulnerable to losses due to climate change. The impacts of climate change on poverty and per capita income are also projected to be negative. Under the current production system, poverty rates were pro- jected to increase by 0.8–15.3% and per-capita income to drop by 1.3–7.5%. Future socio-economic conditions and prices offset the negative impacts of climate change. Under future conditions, the proportion of households vulnerable to loss is estimated to range from 25 to 50%. Per-capita income and poverty rates are expected to improve under the future climate change conditions. Poverty rates would decrease between 1.9 and 11.2% and income per-capita would increase between 2.6 and 18.5%. The proposed future adaptation pack- age will further improve household liveli- hoods. This integrated assessment of climate change projections using the improved meth- ods and tools developed by AgMIP has con- tributed to a better understanding of climate change and adaptation impacts in a holistic manner.