Browsing by Author "Sieber, Stefan"

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Analysis of households’ vulnerability to food insecurity and its influencing factors in East Hararghe, Ethiopia
(Springer, 2019) Sileshi, Million; Kadigi, Reuben; Mutabazi, Khamaldin; Sieber, Stefan
Previous studies on food insecurity in many developing countries, including Ethiopia, have mainly focused on current food insecurity, lacking the ex-ante analysis. An under- standing of household vulnerability to food insecurity is critically important to inform the formulation of policies and strategies to enhance food security and reduce vulner- ability to food insecurity among smallholder farmers. This paper analyses vulnerability to food insecurity of farming households using the vulnerability as expected poverty (VEP) approach. The paper is based on cross-section data collected from a sample of 408 households in East Hararghe, Ethiopia, selected using a multi-stage sampling procedure. The factors which influenced vulnerability to food insecurity were analyzed using the Feasible General Least Squares regression model. The results of analysis indicate that vulnerability to food insecurity increased with the age of household head (P < 0.1), and family size (P < 0.01). It decreased with access to improved seeds (P < 0.01), adoption of soil and water conservation (P < 0.01), size of cultivated land (P < 0.1), and access to credits (P < 0.1). Based on the intensity of their vulnerability, households were grouped as chronic food insecure (24.27%), transient food insecure (11.77%), highly vul- nerable-food secure (18.38%), and low vulnerable-food secure (45.59%). Overall, about 54% of households were categorized as vulnerable to food insecurity. These included households who were food insecure at the time of the survey (36.02%) and those who were categorized as transient food secure group (18.38%). These findings imply that food insecurity policies and interventions in developing countries should focus not only on households that are currently food insecure, but also on those categorized as transient food insecure or households that are more likely to be food insecure in the near future.
Determinants for adoption of physical soil and water conservation measures by smallholder farmers in Ethiopia
(ScienceDirect, 2019) Sileshi, Million; Kadigi, Reuben; Mutabazi, Khamaldin; Sieber, Stefan
Adoption rates of soil and water conservation measures remain below the expected levels in Ethiopia despite the considerable investments in reducing land degradation and improving soil fertility. This constitutes one of the key research agendas in the country. This paper underscores the need for inves- tigating the factors hindering or facilitating the adoption of soil and water conservation measures. The study results presented in this paper are based on cross-section data collected from 408 households in eastern Ethiopia, including field observations of 790 plots selected using a multi-stage sampling pro- cedure. A multivariate probit model was employed to analyse the determinants of adoption of three soil and water conservation measures (stone bund, soil bund, and bench terracing) at the plot level. The study findings reveal that household, socioeconomic, and institution characteristics were the key factors that influenced the adoption of soil bund, stone bund, and bench terracing conservation measures. Furthermore, there was a significant correlation among the three soil and water conservation measures, indicating that the adoption of these measures is interrelated. In particular, the results show that there was a positive correlation between stone bunds and soil bunds. However, the correlations between bench terracing and stone bunds as well as bench terracing and soil bunds were negative (implying substitutability). These results imply that the Government and other relevant organizations that are responsible for reducing land degradation in order to increase agricultural production should support the establishment and strengthening of local institutions to facilitate the adoption of soil and water con- servation measures.
The determinants of farmers’ choice of markets for Staple food commodities in Dodoma and Morogoro, Tanzania
(MDPI, 2020) Kangile, Rajabu Joseph; Mgeni, Charles Peter; Mpenda, Zena Theopist; Sieber, Stefan
Institutional and policy-induced factors affect farmers’ decisions on the choice of the market to sell their staple foods. This results in low motivation to participate in the production and agricultural commodities’ commercialization. This study determines specific institutional and policy-induced factors affecting the farmers’ decisions regarding the staple food market choice in Tanzania. The study uses household survey data collected from 820 farmers raising staple food crops (maize, rice, sorghum, and millet) randomly selected from the Dodoma and Morogoro regions, Tanzania. The index method, descriptive statistics, and choice model (multinomial logit model) are used for data analysis. Qualitative policy analysis is used for analyzing policy-induced factors. Findings show a low level of integration of farmers into staple food markets, with female-headed households facing more hurdles in accessing markets than male-headed households. Age, formal training, the value of agricultural production, membership in organizations, access to credit, contractual arrangements, and distance to markets are significant factors driving farmers to choose a particular market to sell their produces. Restriction of selling and use of staple food commodities, instability of food policy administration, and procedural operation obstacles are found to be key policy-induced factors affecting the marketing of staple food commodities in Tanzania. The scale of production, as depicted by the value of production, and supply contract arrangement with buyers are important factors to ensure that farming households excel in lucrative markets through increased economies of scale and the ability to reach critical volumes for supplying to various markets. Supporting market linkage and infrastructure, as well as enforcing transparent and non-restrictive food marketing policies, would help many farmers enter into contractual arrangements that increase market access and improve market choices.
An economic comparison between alternative rice farming systems in Tanzania using a monte carlo simulation approach
(MDPI, 2020-07) Kadig, Ibrahim L.; Mutabazi, Khamaldin D.; Philip, Damas; Richardson, James W.; Bizimana, Jean-Claude; Mbungu, Winfred; Mahoo, Henry F.; Sieber, Stefan
Tanzania is the second-largest producer of rice (Oryza sativa) in Eastern, Central, and Southern Africa after Madagascar. Unfortunately, the sector has been performing poorly due to many constraints, including poor agricultural practices and climate variability. In addressing the challenge, the government is making substantial investments to speed the agriculture transformation into a more modernized, commercial, and highly productive and profitable sector. Our objective was to apply a Monte Carlo simulation approach to assess the economic feasibility of alternative rice farming systems operating in Tanzania while considering risk analysis for decision-makers with different risk preferences to make better management decisions. The rice farming systems in this study comprise rice farms using traditional practices and those using some or all of the recommended system of rice intensification (SRI) practices. The overall results show 2% and zero probability of net cash income (NCI) being negative for partial and full SRI adopters, respectively. Meanwhile, farmers using local and improved seeds have 66% and 60% probability of NCI being negative, correspondingly. Rice farms which applied fertilizers in addition to improved seeds have a 21% probability of negative returns. Additionally, net income for rice farms using local seeds was slightly worthwhile when the transaction made during the harvesting period compared to farms applied improved varieties due to a relatively high price for local seeds. These results help to inform policymakers and agencies promoting food security and eradication of poverty on the benefits of encouraging improved rice farming practices in the country. Despite climate variability, in Tanzania, it is still possible for rice farmers to increase food production and income through the application of improved technologies, particularly SRI management practices, which have shown a promising future.
Editorial: achieving nutrition security in Tanzania by improving production, education and economics: methods, tools and applications
(Frontiers, 2022-09-20) Hoffmann, Harry Konrad; Kinabo, Joyce Ludovick; Sieber, Stefan; Stuetz, Wolfgang; Bonatti, Michelle; Mbwana, Hadijah Ally; Uckert, Götz Bernhard; Matavel, Custodio Efraim; Hafner, Johannes Michael; Löhr, Katharina; Rybak, Constance
Globally, the number of people unable to afford a healthy diet rose by 112 million to almost 3.1 billion, reflecting the impacts of rising consumer food prices during the pandemic (1). In this context, food security and nutrition is increasingly highlighted as a priority among both scientists (2) and political decision makers (3). On the African continent, this topic is of particular importance as the number of individuals affected by undernourishment remained on a high level throughout the 2010s, and since 2019 are again rising (Figure 1)– the war in Ukraine will most likely cause even greater problems (4). In 2021, hunger affected 278 million people in Africa. Situated in one of the globally most affected regions, achieving food security and nutrition is already a substantial challenge in Tanzania, with the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (5) reporting that, between 2014 and 2020, the overall prevalence of moderate or severe food insecurity in the total population has affected roughly 55-56% of the overall population. However, these already severe numbers do not display the food security situation in 2022 adequately because the devastating effects of the Covid-19 pandemic (6) and the subsequent spikes in global food prices since the 24th of February 2022 are not included. The latter is especially worrying as more than 65% of imported wheat in Tanzania derives from Russia (ca. 50%) or Ukraine (ca. 15%) (7). Furthermore, prices for agricultural inputs, like fertilizers and pesticides, are also increasing significantly, given that these are mainly imported from Russia. The knock-on effects will likewise worsen the food security situation in the near future. Thus, the topic of this special issue is even more important than it was when it was launched, especially as Tanzania is likely to be among the 10 largest countries globally in 2100 (8) and, simultaneously, climate change will hit East Africa (9) including Tanzania (10) particularly hard. The included set of papers aim to address the overall challenge of food insecurity from different disciplinary angles and on different analytical levels, thus holistically displaying the magnitude of the problem and showcasing potential pathways for solving some aspects of the crisis.
The effect of nitrogen-fertilizer and optimal plant population on the profitability of maize plots in the Wami river sub-basin, Tanzania: a bio economic simulation approach
(Elsevier, 2021) Kadigi, Ibrahim L.; Richardson, James W.; Mutabazi, Khamaldin D.; Philip, Damas; Mourice, Sixbert K.; Mbungu, Winfred; Bizimana, Jean-Claude; Sieber, Stefan
Maize (Zea mays L.) is the essential staple in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and Tanzania in particular; the crop accounts for over 30% of the food production, 20% of the agricultural gross domestic product (GDP) and over 75% of the cereal consumption. Maize is grown under a higher risk of failure due to the over-dependence rain fed farming system resulting in low income and food insecurity among maize-based farmers. However, many practices, including conservation agriculture, soil and water conservation, resilient crop varieties, and soil fer tility management, are suggested to increase cereal productivity in Tanzania. Improving planting density, and the use of fertilizers are the immediate options recommended by Tanzania's government. In this paper, we evaluate the economic feasibility of the improved planting density (optimized plant population) and N-fertilizer crop management practices on maize net returns in semi-arid and sub-humid agro-ecological zones in the Wami River sub-Basin, Tanzania. We introduce a bio-economic simulation model using Monte Carlo simulation pro cedures to evaluate the economic viability of risky crop management practices so that the decision-maker can make better management decisions. The study utilizes maize yield data sets from two biophysical cropping system models, namely the APSIM and DSSAT. A total of 83 plots for the semi-arid and 85 plots for the sub humid agro-ecological zones consisted of this analysis. The crop management practices under study comprise the application of 40 kg N-fertilizer/ha and plant population of 3.3 plants/m2 . The study finds that the use of im proved plant population had the lowest annual net return with fertilizer application fetching the highest return. The two crop models demonstrated a zero probability of negative net returns for farms using fertilizer rates of 40 kg N/ha except for DSSAT, which observed a small probability (0.4%) in the sub-humid area. The optimized plant population presented 16.4% to 26.6% probability of negatives net returns for semi-arid and 14.6% to 30.2% probability of negative net returns for sub-humid zones. The results suggest that the application of fer tilizer practices reduces the risks associated with the mean returns, but increasing the plant population has a high probability of economic failure, particularly in the sub-humid zone. Maize sub-sector in Tanzania is pro jected to continue experiencing a significant decrease in yields and net returns, but there is a high chance that it will be better-off if proper alternatives are employed. Similar studies are needed to explore the potential of interventions highlighted in the ACRP for better decision-making.
The farm income and food security implications of adopting fertilizer micro- Dosing and tied-ridge technologies under semi-arid environments in central Tanzania
(Elservier, 2019) Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis; Mgeni, Charles Peter; Mutabazi, Khamaldin Daud; Sieber, Stefan
Adopting fertilizer input and rainwater harvesting techniques play a significant role in minimizing soil nutrient deficiency and moisture stress impact, both prime causes of low crop productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa. This study analyses the extent to which fertilizer micro-dosing (MD) and tied-ridge (TR) technologies can improve smallholder farmers’ food security and farm income. A household survey data along with on-farm trial data collected from semi-arid Tanzania is used for the analysis. The trade-off analysis for multi-dimensional impact assessment model (TOA-MD) is applied for the income and food security impact assessment. The on-farm trial shows a yield increase ranging from 10 to 300 percent for millet, and between 60 and 400 percent for sunflower. The TOA-MD analysis shows that between 52 and 79 percent of farms could be positively influenced to adopt the technologies. The increase in mean net return per farm ranges between 186 and 305 PPP USD. Adoption of the technologies would decrease the percentage of food insecure farmers between 1.8 and 7.1 percent. The study concludes that the technologies have the potential to improve yield and farm income for many farmers. However, these technologies alone would not bring significant change in terms of reducing poverty and food insecurity.
Impact of soil and water conservation practices on household vulnerability to food insecurity in eastern Ethiopia: endogenous switching regression and propensity score matching approach
(Springer, 2019) Sileshi, Million; Kadigi, Reuben; Mutabazi, Khamaldin; Sieber, Stefan
Governmental and developmental partners invest substantial resources to reduce land and water degradation in order to upgrade agricultural productivity, thus reducing food insecurity and related vulnerability in Sub-Saharan Africa. Understanding the impact of soil and water conservation on food insecurity outcomes would be a significant step toward improving environmental conditions, while ensuring sustainable and increased agricultural production. Therefore, this article analyzes the impact of adopting soil and water conservation on food insecurity and related vulnerability outcomes of farming households using a sample of 408 households selected using a multi-stage stratified sampling procedure from three districts in eastern Ethiopia. Vulnerability as expected poverty (three-step Feasible General Least Squares) is employed to analyze the vulnerability of sample households in the context of food insecurity. In addition, endogenous switching regressions with propensity score matching methods are combined to obtain consistent impact estimates. The study findings reveal that education and sex of household head, use of irrigation and fertilizer, source of information, and cultivated land are the main factors influencing the adoption of soil and water conservation practices. Moreover, the adoption of soil and water conservation not only positively impacts the per capita food consumption expenditure and net crop value, but it also significantly reduces the probability of farmers being food insecure, vulnerable to food insecurity, as well as being transient and chronically food insecure. Therefore, policymakers and development organizations should consider soil and water conservation as a main strategy to reduce land degradation and improve the livelihoods of the rural farm households.
Profitability of gliricidia-maize system in selected dryland areas of Dodoma region, Tanzania
(MDPI, 2021-12) Swamila, Martha; Philip, Damas; Akyoo, Adam Meshack; Manda, Julius; Mwinuka, Lutengano; Smethurst, Philip J.; Sieber, Stefan; Kimaro, Anthony Anderson
Declining soil fertility and climatic extremes are among major problems for agricultural production in most dryland agro-ecologies of sub-Saharan Africa. In response, the agroforestry tech- nology intercropping of Gliricidia (Gliricidia sepium (Jacq.)) and Maize (Zea mays L.) was developed to complement conventional soil fertility management technologies. However, diversified information on the profitability of Gliricidia-Maize intercropping system in dryland areas is scanty. Using data from the Gliricidia and maize models of the Next Generation version of the Agriculture Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM), this study estimates the profitability of the Gliricidia-Maize system relative to an unfertilized sole maize system. Results show significant heterogeneity in profitability indicators both in absolute and relative economic terms. Aggregated over a 20-year cycle, Gliricidia- Maize intercropping exhibited a higher Net Present Value (NPV = Tsh 19,238,798.43) and Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR = 4.27) than the unfertilized sole maize system. The NPV and BCR of the latter were Tsh 10,934,669.90 and 3.59, respectively. Moreover, the returns to labour per person day in the Gliricidia-Maize system was 1.5 times those of the unfertilized sole maize system. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the profitability of the Gliricidia-Maize system is more negatively affected by the decrease in output prices than the increase in input prices. A 30% decrease in the former leads to a decrease in NPV and BCR by 38% and 30%, respectively. Despite the higher initial costs of the agroforestry establishment, the 30% increase in input prices affects more disproportionally unfertilized sole maize than the Gliricidia-Maize system in absolute economic terms, i.e., 11.1% versus 8.8% decrease in NPV. In relative economic terms, an equal magnitude of change in input prices exerts the same effect on the unfertilized sole maize and the Gliricidia-maize systems. This result implies that the monetary benefits accrued after the first year of agroforestry establishment offset the initial investment costs. The Gliricidia-Maize intercropping technology therefore is profitable with time, and it can contribute to increased household income and food security. Helping farmers to overcome initial investment costs and manage agroforestry technologies well to generate additional benefits is critical for the successful scaling of the Gliricidia-Maize intercropping technology in dryland areas of Dodoma, Tanzania.
Sunflower Value Chain Enhancements for the Rural Economy in Tanzania: A Village Computable General Equilibrium-CGE Approach
(MDPI, 2018) Mgeni, Charles Peter; Müller, Klaus; Sieber, Stefan
Poverty is prevalent and widespread in rural Tanzania, where agriculture is the main activity. The government is making significant public investments intended to speed the growth of agriculture as a means to accelerate inclusive economic growth. In line with public investments, the government is promoting public–private partnerships by encouraging the use of improved agricultural innovations and linking farmers to markets, seeking to increase their yields and income. However, there is a paucity of empirical evidence using multipliers analysis about the extent of how gains in agricultural productivity and market linkages for farmers in rural areas help improve the economy at the household level. This paper assesses the welfare effects of the sunflower value chain for a rural economy in Tanzania using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for the selected village, which has a high potential for sunflower. Findings highlight the use of the CGE model, first, for analyzing and understanding the economic sectors at a village level. Second, the effects of various upgrading strategies promoted for improving rural farming communities by the government and non-governmental development partners at the micro-scale are analyzed and potential agricultural commodity value chains identified. The multiplier analysis provided insights regarding the potential of sunflower crops for the village economy.
Tariff impact on industrialization in Tanzania: evidence from Edible oil sub-sector
(Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 2019) Mgeni, Charles Peter; Müller, Klaus; Sieber, Stefan
Developing countries implement protectionist policies like imposing tariffs, with the aim of promoting domestic production. This study assesses the impact of the imposed tariffs on edible oil on Tanzania’s economy using a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model (CGE). Findings from this study show that implementing the tariff intervention on the dibble oil sub-sector has two principle outcomes; first, it triggers domestic producers to supply more due to the rise in demand and prices for the commodities, thus increases domestic production to meet demand; second, it reduces imports, consequently, decreasing citizens’ welfare by limiting the availability and access options from imported commodities. Protectionist policies, when solely used as a solution to increase domestic production in a sector that is inefficient in terms of productivity, creates a supply deficit in the market, thus reducing consumers’ welfare. Therefore, to improve sustainability and increase industrial competitiveness, it is imperative to promote policies and interventions that target increasing productivity. Interventions, like the use of improved seed and other modern technologies, that reduce costs of production are critical as commodities will be sold at a slightly competitive premium or the same prices as imported commodities.