Density dependence and persistence of Morogoro arenavirus transmission in a fluctuating population of its reservoir host
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Date
2019-07-21
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
British Ecological Society
Abstract
A key aim in wildlife disease ecology is to understand how host and parasite
characteristics influence parasite transmission and persistence. Variation in host
population density can have strong impacts on transmission and outbreaks, and
theory predicts particular transmission–density patterns depending on how para-
sites are transmitted between individuals. Here, we present the results of a study
on the dynamics of Morogoro arenavirus in a population of multimammate mice
(Mastomys natalensis). This widespread African rodent, which is also the reservoir
host of Lassa arenavirus in West Africa, is known for its strong seasonal density
fluctuations driven by food availability. We investigated to what degree virus transmission changes with host population
density and how the virus might be able to persist during periods of low host
density.A seven‐year capture–mark–recapture study was conducted in Tanzania where
rodents were trapped monthly and screened for the presence of antibodies
against Morogoro virus. Observed seasonal seroprevalence patterns were com-
pared with those generated by mathematical transmission models to test different
hypotheses regarding the degree of density dependence and the role of chroni-
cally infected individuals. We observed that Morogoro virus seroprevalence correlates positively with host
density with a lag of 1–4 months. Model results suggest that the observed sea-
sonal seroprevalence dynamics can be best explained by a combination of verti-
cal and horizontal transmission and that a small number of animals need to be
infected chronically to ensure viral persistence. Transmission dynamics and viral persistence were best explained by the existence
of both acutely and chronically infected individuals and by seasonally changing
transmission rates. Due to the presence of chronically infected rodents, rodent
control is unlikely to be a feasible approach for eliminating arenaviruses such as
Lassa virus from Mastomys populations.
Description
Journal of Animal Ecology
Keywords
renavirus, capture‐mark‐recapture, mathematical modelling, Morogoro virus, multimammate mouse, parasite‐host interactions, rodent‐borne parasite, transmission dynamics
Citation
DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.13107