Estimating risk of introduction of ebola virus disease from the democratic republic of Congo to Tanzania: a qualitative assessment
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Date
2022-02-11
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
MDPI
Abstract
Between April 2018 and November 2020, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) experi-
enced its 11th Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak. Tanzania’s cross-border interactions with DRC
through regular visitors, traders, and refugees are of concern, given the potential for further spread
to neighboring countries. This study aimed to estimate the risk of introducing EVD to Tanzania from
DRC. National data for flights, boats, and car transport schedules from DRC to Tanzania covering
the period of May 2018 to June 2019 were analyzed to describe population movement via land, port,
and air travel and coupled with available surveillance data to model the risk of EVD entry. The
land border crossing was considered the most frequently used means of travel and the most likely
pathway of introducing EVD from DRC to Tanzania. High probabilities of introducing EVD from
DRC to Tanzania through the assessed pathways were associated with the viability of the pathogen
and low detection capacity at the ports of entry. This study provides important information regarding
the elements contributing to the risk associated with the introduction of EBV in Tanzania. It also
indicates that infected humans arriving via land are the most likely pathway of EBV entry, and
therefore, mitigation strategies including land border surveillance should be strengthened.
Description
Journal of Epidemiologia 2022, pp. 68–80.
Keywords
Risk assessment, Ebola virus disease, Population movement, Introduction, Tanzania