Browsing by Author "Mbanzulu Kennedy M."

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Estimating risk of introduction of ebola virus disease from the democratic republic of Congo to Tanzania: a qualitative assessment
(MDPI, 2022-02-11) Rugarabamu Sima; Mwanyika Gaspary O.; Misinzo Gerald; Mboera Leonard E. G.; George Janeth; Mbanzulu Kennedy M.
Between April 2018 and November 2020, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) experi- enced its 11th Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak. Tanzania’s cross-border interactions with DRC through regular visitors, traders, and refugees are of concern, given the potential for further spread to neighboring countries. This study aimed to estimate the risk of introducing EVD to Tanzania from DRC. National data for flights, boats, and car transport schedules from DRC to Tanzania covering the period of May 2018 to June 2019 were analyzed to describe population movement via land, port, and air travel and coupled with available surveillance data to model the risk of EVD entry. The land border crossing was considered the most frequently used means of travel and the most likely pathway of introducing EVD from DRC to Tanzania. High probabilities of introducing EVD from DRC to Tanzania through the assessed pathways were associated with the viability of the pathogen and low detection capacity at the ports of entry. This study provides important information regarding the elements contributing to the risk associated with the introduction of EBV in Tanzania. It also indicates that infected humans arriving via land are the most likely pathway of EBV entry, and therefore, mitigation strategies including land border surveillance should be strengthened.
Forty-two years of responding to Ebola virus outbreaks in Sub-Saharan Africa: a review
(BMJ Global Health, 2020-01-27) Rugarabamu Sima; Mboera Leonard E. G.; Mbanzulu Kennedy M.; Rweyemamu Mark; Lutwama Julius; Paweska Janusz; Misinzo Gerald
Introduction Ebola virus disease (EVD) is one of the deadliest haemorrhagic fevers affecting humans and non- human primates. Thirty-four outbreaks have been reported in Africa since it was first recognised in 1976. This review analysed 42 years of EVD outbreaks and identified various challenges and opportunities for its control and prevention in Sub-Saharan Africa. Methods A literature search of relevant articles on EVD was done in PubMed, Web of Science and Google Scholar electronic databases. Articles published from 1976 to 2019 were reviewed to document reports of EVD outbreaks in Sub-Saharan Africa. Data extraction focused on the year of outbreak, geographical spread, virus strain involved, number of cases and deaths, case fatality, and outbreak management. Analyses of trends in case fatality were performed by calculating ORs between times. Results In the past four decades, a total of 34 EVD outbreaks affecting 34 356 cases and causing 14 823 deaths were reported in 11 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. The overall case fatality rate (95% CI) was 66% (62 to 71) and did not change substantially over time (OR in 2019 vs 1976=1.6 (95% CI 1.5 to 1.8), p<0.001). The results of this review indicate that challenges to control EVD outbreaks are related to epidemiological, sociocultural and health system factors. Conclusions Sub-Saharan Africa continues to face considerable challenges in EVD control, whereby there are no significant changes in case fatality rates observed during the past four decades. Socioeconomic and cultural processes need to be critically considered to shape the community behaviours that lead to exposure to EVD outbreaks. Areas that need to be addressed to prevent future EVD outbreaks include a broad-based, one-health approach, effective communication, social mobilisation, and strengthening of the health systems.