Articles, Conference and Workshop Papers Collection

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The contribution of Dioscorea hirtiflora to the livelihoods of local communities in Lindi and Mtwara Regions, Tanzania
(Academic Journals, 2025-08-13) Boniphace MK; Greyson ZN; Makarius CSL
This study assessed the contribution of Dioscorea hirtiflora to the livelihoods of local communities in the Lindi and Mtwara regions of Tanzania. Specifically, it aimed to identify and assess the factors influencing the utilization of D. hirtiflora (Ming'oko), examine the socioeconomic factors influencing its collection, and evaluate its contribution to rural livelihoods. The study used a sample size of 160 respondents randomly selected from eight villages: Mnamba, Madangwa, Hingawali, Nachunyu, Mkunwa, Dihimba, Namayanga, and Pachoto B. Primary data were collected using a structured questionnaire, while secondary data were obtained from District Forest and Agricultural Offices. Data analysis was performed using SPSS software, with descriptive and inferential statistics determined, and regression analysis conducted to assess relationships between variables. The findings indicate a positive relationship between the collection of D. hirtiflora and certain socioeconomic variables. The study found that tubers are harvested from the wild throughout the year, with the highest activity occurring between May and November, peaking in June. Based on these findings, the study recommends that the government and NGOs invest in the propagation and domestication of D. hirtiflora to ensure a sustainable supply throughout the year.
Unlocking the quantity of dioscorea hirtiflora harvested in Lindi and Mtwara Regions, Tanzania
(John Wiley and Sons (Wiley), 2025-11-11) Boniphace Magdaline Konk; Lalika Makarius Christian; Nyamoga Greyson Zabron
This study focused on quantifying the amount of Dioscorea hirtiflora harvested in Lindi and Mtwara regions, Tanzania. Specifically, the study aimed at identifying key stakeholders engaged in the Dioscorea hirtiflora collection, consumption, and trading in the study area, to quantify the amount of Dioscorea hirtiflora collected, consumed, and traded in the study area, and to estimate the income generated through Dioscorea hirtiflora marketing in the study area. The study used a sample size of 160 respondents selected randomly from Mnamba, Madangwa, Hingawali, Nachunyu, Mkunwa, Dihimba, Namayanga, and Pachoto B villages. A structured questionnaire was administered for primary data collection. Secondary data were collected from the District Forest and Agricultural Offices. Data were analysed using R software, version 4.5.0. Qualitative and quantitative variables were analysed. The value of Dioscorea hirtiflora was obtained by multiplying the average market price of each product by its quantity. The average quantity of 1342.109 kg in Lindi and 1732.667 Kg in Mtwara of Dioscorea hirtiflora was collected by the selected households. From the sample of 160, it was estimated that the community earned about (TZS 1,884 275.36) in Mtwara and (TZS1,476,319.9 in Lindi. The study recommends that the government should recognise Dioscorea hirtiflora business in the national income statistics.
Ecological health assessment of lukosi river using macroinvertebrateandriparian vegetation indicators in Iringa, Tanzania
(Water Institute, 2025-12-30) Nyagongo Ahmad Adam; Ndibalema Vedasto Gabriel; Lalika Makarius Christian Sengilinga
The health of river ecosystems is increasingly threatened by human activities such as agriculture, urbanization, andindustrialization. This study evaluates the ecological status of the Lukosi River Catchment (LRC) in Kilolo District, Iringa, Tanzania, using macroinvertebrates and riparian vegetation as bioindicators. We employed a cross-sectional design, sampling at upstream, midstream, and downstream sites. Macroinvertebrates were collected via the kicking-bottommethodand analyzed using the Shannon–Wiener diversity index and the Average Score Per Taxon (ASPT). Riparian vegetationwas surveyed through belt transects and assessed by species distribution and proportional cover. Fourteenmacroinvertebrate taxa were identified, dominated by water scavenger beetles and snails. Biodiversity was moderate(H′ ≈1.98). ASPT scores declined spatially: upstream (good quality), midstream (moderate), and downstream(poor), indicatingworsening water quality downstream. The riparian zone was heavily modified: about 58% grasses, 28%shrubs, and14%trees, reflecting human disturbance and land-use change. The results reveal progressive ecosystemdegradationalongtheriver, strongest downstream, likely driven by pollution and catchment alteration. These results call for integratedcatchment management policies, stricter land-use regulation, and community-based riparian restoration programstoenhance water quality, biodiversity, and long-term ecological resilience of the LRC.
Quantification of intangible forest ecosystem services in eastern arc mountains of Tanzania
(Tanzania Journal of Forestry and Nature Conservation, 2025) Mombo,F; Kitasho,N; Kishimbo,L; Bigirwa,D
Lack of recognition of the economic value of intangible forest ecosystem services has contributed to the ongoing degradation of forest resources in Tanzania. This study employed a choice experiment method to estimate the economic values of such services provided by the Udzungwa Scarp, Chome, and Uluguru Nature Forest Reserves in the Eastern Arc Mountains, by assessing households’ willingness to pay (WTP). The services valued include protection of water sources, soil conservation, biodiversity conservation, climate regulation, and the provision of recreational and landscaping amenities. A simple random sampling technique was used to select 352 households from five districts: Same, Mvomero, Morogoro Rural, Kilolo, and Mufindi. Data were analyzed using a conditional logit model. The pooled analysis from the three reserves revealed that the estimated marginal WTP per month was TZS 597.40 for biodiversity conservation, TZS 1,898.49 for water source protection, and TZS 2,874.08 for soil conservation. Collectively, these services were valued at approximately TZS 22.68 million annually by all sampled households. To minimize the degradation of forest resources in the Eastern Arc Mountains region, this study recommends that policymakers incorporate the estimated economic values into forest conservation decisions, ensuring that beneficiaries of these services contribute to their protection
Increased biomass for carbon stock in participatory forest managed miombo woodlands of Tanzania
(2016) Lusambo, L. P; Lupala, Z. J; Midtgaard, F; Ngaga, Y. M; Kessy, J. F; Abdallah, J. M; Kingazi, S. P; Mombo, F; Nyamoga, G. Z
Miombo (Zambezian savanna) woodlands are important forest vegetation in Tanzania. The forests contain biomass which is vital for climate change mitigation strategy. However the extent of increasing biomass under participatory forest management for carbon sequestration and storage is not clear. Understanding of this biomass will aid development of effective climate change mitigation strategies and promote sustainable forest management. This study involved 276 systematically determined concentric sample plots laid out in eight miombo woodland forests (four in Mbeya region and four in Iringa region). Of these plots, 145 were laid in participatory managed forests and 131 in reference scenario, called business as usual (BAU) or open access forest selected in proximity. The main finding was that most of PFM forests had significant increase in biomass (P < 0.05) as compared to the reference scenario. Mean biomass increased from 48.05 t/ha ± 0.03 to 37.91 t/ha ± 0.19 in PFM forests. Likewise mean biomass was 37.91 t/ha ± 0.11 to15.79 t/ha ± 0.13 for reference scenario BAU forests. This implied higher average carbon stock in participatory managed forests (21.37 t/ha) against the reference scenario (11.28 t/ha). The results provide evidence that participatory forest management approach in miombo woodlands of Tanzania have potential for climate change mitigation strategies. Despite the challenge in determining reference scenario, these findings present useful benchmark against which further study can be performed.
What makes risk-averse investors tick? a practitioners guide
(Cogent Economics & Finance, 2022-08-06) Anzel Van den Bergh-Lindeque; Sune Ferreira-Schenk; Zandri Dickason- Koekemoer; Thomas Habanabakize
The real challenge to many practitioners in the financial and investment sector is to accurately profile risk-averse investors to still be inclusive of these investors in the wealth creation process. This study aims to profile risk-averse investors through a structural equation model based on endogenous and exogenous factors. The final sample size consisted of 463 individual investors in the economic hub of South Africa, Gauteng province. These endogenous and exogenous factors may bring about increases or decreases in the risk tolerance levels of investors and accordingly, influence their decisions to initiate, amend or terminate financial behaviours. These factors significantly contributed towards explaining lowrisk tolerance behaviour, which assisted with the successful development of a model to profile the risk tolerance behaviour of risk-averse investors. This risk profiling model makes a remarkable and unique contribution to the field of study and the financial industry, since it will assist financial practitioners to profile the risk tolerance behaviour of risk-averse investors more accurately, which will lead to the successful implementation of investment strategies.
Assessing the influence of climate variability and land cover change on water resources in the Wami river catchment, Tanzania
(SPRINGER, 2023) Lalika Christossy B. C.; Mujahid Aziz Ul Haq; Lalika Makarius C. S.
Understanding the trend, extent, and effect of climate variability and land cover change are globally important for monitor- ing river catchments water resources. Due to the majority of river catchment from developing countries such as Tanzania experiencing insufficient time series data, the long-term ERA5-Land (1960–2021) reanalysis was used to assess the influence of climate variability and land cover change on water resource in the Wami river catchment. The Mann–Kendal–Sneyer test revealed a change that reflects the effect of land cover change on runoff in 1992, hence the mean annual runoff, precipitation, and actual evapotranspiration decreased by 19%, 9.7%, and 8.9%, respectively, while potential evapotranspiration increased by 5% after the change. Budyko decomposition and climate elasticity methods illustrated that variability change caused a notable contribution to the reduction of Wami River runoff. Hydrological sensitivity analysis revealed that variability of climate is a primary factor that reduced runoff with a contribution of 69%, while land cover change is 31%, this illustrates runoff in the Wami river catchment is more vulnerable to climate variability than land cover change by considering that most of the catchment are classified as arid or semi-arid. Thus, our study emphasizes the importance embracing climate adaptation strategies, particularly a nature-based solution (NbS), to ensure the sustainability of water resources within the Wami river catchment.
Watershed degradation and water provision in Morogoro Municipality, Tanzania
(ELSEVIER, 2023) Raphael Antidius; Ngaga Yonika; Lalika Makarius
Freshwater provision is an ecosystem service usually offered by natural watersheds but threatened by anthropogenic degradation. Pollution reduced water supply and led to high socio-economic costs. This study examined water accessibility in three wards of Morogoro Municipality in Tanzania in terms of; household sources of water supply, availability, con- sumption, and spending. It involved primary data collected through household question- naire survey, key informant interviews and observation, and secondary data from water supply authority and basin offices. Quantitative data were analyzed by descriptive tech- niques that involved computation of maximum and minimum values, means, and percent- ages; and qualitative data by content analysis technique. About 80% of study respondents were not connected to the public water supply networks, they depended on sources like boreholes, wells, rainwater, and streams. Water supply was insufficient and partly unaf- fordable during scarcity. The study findings were linked to the UNESCO IHP-IX framework to achieve water-related SDGs, to improve water provision efficiency.
Gender roles in sustainable use and practices of medicinal plants in urban districts of Morogoro and Iringa Tanzania
(Sokoine University of Agriculture, 2002) Augustino Suzana
This study was designed to assess the role played by gender in sustainable use and practices of medicinal plants, in urban districts of Morogoro and Iringa, Tanzania. Data were collected through social survey methods through interviews with herbalists (traditional healers and medicinal plant sellers) and key informants such as Forest extension officers and botanists. A list of medicinal plants given by each informant was compiled. The information gathered included local plant names, type of disease treated, parts of plant used, preparation methods, dosage and other aspects of medicinal plants including practices. The Statistical Package for Social Science Programme (SPSS) including content analysis, chi-square and logistic regression were used in data analysis. The results indicated that out of 246 and 177 medicinal plants recorded in Morogoro and Iringa urban districts respectively, only 108 and 88 were botanically identified. The recorded medicinal plants cure about 72 and 57 diseases and other complications in Morogoro and Iringa urban districts respectively. Male herbalists from the two districts prefer to use roots while female herbalists prefer to use barks. Most male and female herbalists usually harvest parts of medicinal plants outside their districts and traditionally prepare plant medicine using variety of methods like mixture of boiling and grinding. Dosages were not specific for most male and female herbalists and side effects were unknown. Significant differences were observed in the roles played by gender in sustainable use of medicinal plants. Most female than male supported much the idea of training in domestication of medicinal plants or establishment of community based woodlots and involvement in different research on medicinal plants. The medicinal plant practices were found to be gender dependent. While in Morogoro urban District men dominated the practice, in Iringa urban District women were dominantdependent. While in Morogoro urban District men dominated the practice, in Iringa urban District women were dominant. From the results it is concluded that male and female herbalists are very important people in providing primary health care to the urban societies. However, medicinal plant practices do not always depend on gender but are rather influenced much by social-economic and cultural factors that discourage women to participate fully. In order to integrate medicinal plants practices with the health care system in Tanzania it is recommended to; organize public awareness programmes to all herbalists to improve their understanding in aspects connected with medicinal plants and ensure sustainable use of the resources, sensitize most herbalists to change their altitude, start cooperating and pass their knowledge to young generations to sustain their traditional knowledge. Further studies are recommended to domesticate the potential medicinal plants in home gardens, determine their efficacy and safe ways of administering medicinal plant.
The impacts of anthropogenic activities on the physicochemical water quality of Pinyinyi River, Arusha-Tanzania
(JWEMPO, 2024-01-17) Omary Rajabu; Lalika Makarius C.S.; Nguvava Mariam; Mgimwa Emmanuel
Rivers are important for aquatic biodiversity. Anthropogenic activities de- grade rivers and decrease their capacity to offer ecosystem services. This study used macroinvertebrates to assess the impact of anthropogenic activities on the Pinyinyi River during dry and wet season. Abundance of macroinverte- brates, average score per taxon and Shannon Weiner Species Diversity Index were used to state the ecological status of Pinyinyi River. Because the abun- dance of macroinvertebrates can be affected by change in water quality, some of the physicochemical parameters were also measured. A macroinvertebrates hand net is used to collect the macroinvertebrates per sampling point. DO, temperature, pH, turbidity and TDS were measured in-situ using HI-9829 Multiparameter and BOD was measured in the laboratory using Oxydirect le- vibond method. A total of 164 macroinvertebrates were collected and identi- fied from Pinyinyi River during dry and wet season. They belong to 13 fami- lies. The most abundant taxa were mosquito larva, Diptera (41.07%) and aq- uatic caterpillar, Lepidoptera (23.21%) during dry season representing about 64.28% of the total macroinvertebrates whereas the least abundant taxa were pouch snail (16.07%) and dragonflies, Odonata (19.64%) during dry season representing about 35.72% of the total macroinvertebrates. The most abun- dant taxa collected during wet season were aquatic earthworm, haplotaxida (19.44%), midges, Diptera (17.59%), black flies, Diptera (15.74%) and creep- ing water bugs, hemiptera (12.96%) whereas the least abundant were pigmy back swimmers, hemiptera (2.78%), snail (3.7%), predacious dividing beetle (4.63%) and coleopteran (4.63%). Average Score per taxon of Pinyinyi River during dry season was 5.25 and 3.6 during wet season. The Shannon Weiner Species Diversity Index was 1.318 during dry season and 2.138 during wet season. Based on the score, Pinyinyi River is moderately polluted during dry season and seriously polluted during wet season. Based on index, Pinyinyi River has low diversity of macroinvertebrates during dry season and highly in diversity of macroinvertebrates during wet season. Moreover, it was found that, agricultural activities, livestock keeping, bathing and washing alter phy- sicochemical parameters of Pinyinyi River and hence change the abundance of macroinvertebrates as well as the quality of water. The study, therefore, recommends that the source of pollutants should be controlled and the river regularly monitored by the relevant authorities.
Hydrological response to land use and land cover change on the slopes of Kilimanjaro and Meru Mountains
(Elsevier B.V., 2022) Mangi Halima O.; Onywere Simon M; Kitur Ester C.; Lalika Makarius C. S.; Chilagane Nyemo A.
Land use and cover change are closely linked to catchment hydrology characteristics. Land uses and cover determine the ability of the catchment to collect, store, and release water. The catchment water storage and flow ability affect the quantity and timing of runoff, soil erosion, and sediment transport downstream. Agriculture on of the major drivers for the changes in water flow pathways, which also causes a catastrophic shift of aquatic ecosys- tems. We assessed the impact of land-use changes on the water flow characteristics in the Upper Pangani Sub catchment using the hydrologic model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Land use and cover changes within the Upper Pangani Sub catchment were ana- lyzed between 1987 and 2017 using QGIS. The result shows that agriculture has expanded from 96,737 ha to 314,871 ha between 1987 and 2017. Bare land and built-up land have gained 14690 ha and 7083 ha respectively during this period. Land-use changes have af- fected the basin’s land cover. Forest has decreased from 196558 ha to 106839 ha between 1987 and 2017. Bush land cover has lost 83445 ha during this period. Bushland cover fall victim to agricultural activities, whereas forest is cleared for logging and fire incidences. Consequently, surface runoff has increased from 60.84 to 73.02 (20.6% increase) between 1987 and 2017. Sediment yield has increase from 6.9 to 12.74 ton/ha (46% increase), and groundwater recharge has decreased from 106.53 to 99.56 (6.5% decrease). It concluded that land cover transformation alters hydrology characteristics of the catchment, resulting to fast surface flow, high rate of soil erosion and low infiltration rate. It is recommended that agro-forestry should be emphasized in the catchment.
Vegetation cover changes due to artisanal and Small-Scale Gold Mining in Bukombe Mbogwe Forest Reserve in Geita Region, Tanzania
(ResearchGate, 2022) Pancrace P.; Salanga R. J.; Lalika M.C.S.
Bukombe-Mbogwe Forest Reserve (BMFR) has substantially lost its vegetation cover following Artisanal and Small-scale Gold Mining (ASGM). The study aimed at examining vegetation cover changes in BMFR and surrounding villages due to ASGM in Mbogwe District. Purposive and random sampling were employed obtaining 138 respondents. Data was collected through remote sensing, participant observation, questionnaire survey, key informant interviews and focus group discussions. Landsat images of three window periods (1984, 2002 and 2020) were analysed qualitatively and quantitatively using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and supervised classification of Maximum Likelihood (ML) algorithm techniques respectively. Descriptive and content analysis were conducted for quantitative and qualitative socio-economic data respectively. By using NDVI technique, median values decreased in BMFR from 0.57 (dense vegetation) to 0.34 (shrubs and grasslands). Land use/cover changes (LULCC) for 1984 to 2020 proved that there was decrease in dense vegetation from 46.4% to 25.62%, bare-land from 43.23% to 20.06% and increase in sparse vegetation from 9.4% to 46.86% and built-up land from 0.97% to 7.46%. Logs for pit construction were extracted from BMFR by 67.5%. Therefore; ASGM has negatively changed vegetation cover in BMFR and surrounding villages. The paper recommends increasing protection in BMFR by employing Joint Forest Management (JFM).
The Influence of artisanal and Small-Scale gold mining on tree species within the Bukombe-Mbogwe Forest Reserve, Mbogwe District, Tanzania
(College of Social Sciences and Humanities, Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA), Morogoro-Tanzania, 2022-06-26) Pancrace, P.; Salanga, R. J.; Lalika, M. C. S.
Bukombe-Mbogwe Forest Reserve (BMFR) has witnessed a consistent decline in its tree species, a phenomenon exacerbated by the presence of Artisanal and Small-scale Gold Mining (ASGM) activities in the district. This research sought to comprehensively investigate the variations in tree species within the forest reserve and the neighbouring villages attributable to ASGM operations. A total of 138 participants were selected through random sampling, consisting of 120 individuals who responded to a questionnaire survey and 18 participants who engaged in key informant interviews. The study employed a multi-method approach, incorporating participant observations, three focus group discussions (representing each village), and thorough literature reviews. Qualitative data underwent content analysis, while descriptive analysis was employed for quantitative data, with Microsoft Excel utilized for data presentation. The findings unequivocally indicate a decline in the abundance of forest tree species after the initiation of ASGM activities. The Pterocarpus chrysothrix (Mkurungu) species is on the brink of extinction, closely followed by the Brachystegia microphylla (Mgela) and Afzella quenzensis (Mkora) species. Alarming findings reveal that environmental training remains woefully inadequate, with 78% of respondents attesting to a lack of training, while only 22% reported receiving some form of training. Equally concerning is the inefficacy of mine closure plans, with a mere 1.7% possessing restoration strategies, 24.1% intending to undertake tree planting initiatives, and a staggering 74.2% having no concrete plans in place. In light of these dire outcomes, it is apparent that ASGM activities have cast a deleterious impact on the preservation of forest tree species within the BMFR. Urgent measures are imperative to bolster protection against human incursions into the BMFR, fostering an environment conducive to natural regeneration. Moreover, the establishment of a comprehensive environmental management plan tailored to the BMFR is an indispensable requisite to mitigate the adverse effects of ASGM and restore the balance of this vital ecosystem.
Macroinvertebrates as bio Indicators of water quality in Pinyinyi River, Arusha Tanzania
(Scientific Research Publishing Inc, 2023) Omary Rajabu Ramadhani; Lalika Makarius C. S.; Nguvava Mariam; Mgimwa Emmanuel
Rivers are important for aquatic biodiversity. Anthropogenic activities de- grade rivers and decrease their capacity to offer ecosystem services. This study used macroinvertebrates to assess the impact of anthropogenic activities on the Pinyinyi River during dry and wet season. Abundance of macroinverte- brates, average score per taxon and Shannon Weiner Species Diversity Index were used to state the ecological status of Pinyinyi River. Because the abun- dance of macroinvertebrates can be affected by change in water quality, some of the physicochemical parameters were also measured. A macroinvertebrates hand net is used to collect the macroinvertebrates per sampling point. DO, temperature, pH, turbidity and TDS were measured in-situ using HI-9829 Multiparameter and BOD was measured in the laboratory using Oxydirect le- vibond method. A total of 164 macroinvertebrates were collected and identi- fied from Pinyinyi River during dry and wet season. They belong to 13 fami- lies. The most abundant taxa were mosquito larva, Diptera (41.07%) and aq- uatic caterpillar, Lepidoptera (23.21%) during dry season representing about 64.28% of the total macroinvertebrates whereas the least abundant taxa were pouch snail (16.07%) and dragonflies, Odonata (19.64%) during dry season representing about 35.72% of the total macroinvertebrates. The most abun- dant taxa collected during wet season were aquatic earthworm, haplotaxida (19.44%), midges, Diptera (17.59%), black flies, Diptera (15.74%) and creep- ing water bugs, hemiptera (12.96%) whereas the least abundant were pigmy back swimmers, hemiptera (2.78%), snail (3.7%), predacious dividing beetle (4.63%) and coleopteran (4.63%). Average Score per taxon of Pinyinyi River during dry season was 5.25 and 3.6 during wet season. The Shannon Weiner Species Diversity Index was 1.318 during dry season and 2.138 during wet season. Based on the score, Pinyinyi River is moderately polluted during dry season and seriously polluted during wet season. Based on index, Pinyinyi River has low diversity of macroinvertebrates during dry season and highly in diversity of macroinvertebrates during wet season. Moreover, it was found that, agricultural activities, livestock keeping, bathing and washing alter phy- sicochemical parameters of Pinyinyi River and hence change the abundance of macroinvertebrates as well as the quality of water. The study, therefore, recommends that the source of pollutants should be controlled and the river regularly monitored by the relevant authorities
Unlocking the potential of ecohydrology in climate stressed water bodies: experience from Mara River Basin, Tanzania
(ResearchGate, 2022) Boniphace, M. K.; Lalika, M. C. S.
Mara River is a transboundary water body between Tanzania and Kenya that drains into Lake Victoria. This transboundary water body is crucial for various ecosystem services for the local communities along the catchment. Despite its ecological and economic significance, the river is under increasing pressure and losing many of its important functions with serious consequences in aquatic biodiversity, significant reduction of livelihood opportunities, water eutrophication, changed water regimes and increased water use conflicts. This study identify the drivers of climate change and environmental degradation, effects of mining activities on water quality, effects of agricultural activities on stream discharge and establish approaches for river basin management and environmental conservation. Socio-economic data were collected through household questionnaires, interviews and participant observation. Ecological data on water quality, flow and heavy metals concetration were obtained from gauging stations and Lake Victoria Basin Offices for analyses. The Statistical Packing for Social Sciences and Microsoft Excel were used in the analyses. The study revealed that environmental degradation along the Mara River Basin is caused by direct and indirect drivers. Direct drivers for environmental degradation are identified as agriculturel (41%), mining (34%), livestock keeping (13%) and deforestation (12%). It is found that impairment of water quality is due to excessive NO3- and PO43- concentrations that exceed the recommended in most sites by direct drivers which cause adverse impact on the ecosystem. Ecohydrology and management framework that encompasses integrated water resource management along the entire basin should be applied and also, developing new species susceptible to the impacts of climate change.
Machine learning algorithms for the prediction of drought conditions in the Wami River sub-catchment, Tanzania
(SPRINGER, 2024-04-16) Lalika Christossy; Mujahid Aziz Ul Haq; James Mturi; Lalika Makarius C.S.
Study region: This study refers to the Wami river sub-catchments in Eastern Tanzania. Study Focus: The five-machine learning (ML) algorithms, including long short-term memory (LSTM), multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS), support vector machine (SVM), extreme learning machine (ELM), and M5 Tree, were used to predict the most widely used drought index, the standard precipitation index (SPI), at six and nine months. Algorithms were established using monthly rainfall data for the period from 1990 to 2022 at five meteorological stations distributed across the Wami River sub-catchment: Barega, Dakawa, Dodoma, Kongwa, and Mandera stations. New hydrological insights for the region. The predicted results of all five ML algorithms were evaluated using several statistical metrics, including Pearson’s correlation coefficient (R), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE). The prediction results revealed that LSTM perform better in predicting drought conditions using SPI6 (6-month SPI) and SPI9 (9-month SPI) with the highest NSE of 0.99 in all five stations, and R of 0.99 in four stations except at Kongwa station, where R range from 0.75 to 0.99. These prediction results will aid decision-makers and planners to develop a drought monitoring and drought early warning system in order to strengthen the governance and resilience to the catchment and people on the impacts of water scarcity and climate change.
Assessing the influence of climate variability and land cover change on water resources in the Wami river catchment, Tanzania
(SPRINGER, 2024-02-13) Lalika Christossy B. C.; Mujahid Aziz Ul Haq; Lalika Makarius C. S.
Understanding the trend, extent, and effect of climate variability and land cover change are globally important for monitor- ing river catchments water resources. Due to the majority of river catchment from developing countries such as Tanzania experiencing insufficient time series data, the long-term ERA5-Land (1960–2021) reanalysis was used to assess the influence of climate variability and land cover change on water resource in the Wami river catchment. The Mann–Kendal–Sneyer test revealed a change that reflects the effect of land cover change on runoff in 1992, hence the mean annual runoff, precipitation, and actual evapotranspiration decreased by 19%, 9.7%, and 8.9%, respectively, while potential evapotranspiration increased by 5% after the change. Budyko decomposition and climate elasticity methods illustrated that variability change caused a notable contribution to the reduction of Wami River runoff. Hydrological sensitivity analysis revealed that variability of climate is a primary factor that reduced runoff with a contribution of 69%, while land cover change is 31%, this illustrates runoff in the Wami river catchment is more vulnerable to climate variability than land cover change by considering that most of the catchment are classified as arid or semi-arid. Thus, our study emphasizes the importance embracing climate adaptation strategies, particularly a nature-based solution (NbS), to ensure the sustainability of water resources within the Wami river catchment.
The cost of domestic water provision in Morogoro Municipality, Tanzania
(ELSERVIER, 2024) Raphael Antidius; Ngaga Yonika; Lalika Makarius C.S.
Accessible water is a basic human right but due to its fugitiveness and paucity, water is an economic good, rather than a public one. A reduced supply of water causes high financial and social costs. This study examined using the cost-based approach, the value of Mindu Dam by providing public water to Morogoro Municipality in Tanzania. It focused on the cost of water treatment and of constructing boreholes to ensure an efficient water supply. Data were collected from Morogoro Water Supply and Sanitation Authority (MORUWASA), the Wami/Ruvu Basin Water Board (WRBWB) Office, and three wards of the municipal- ity. Household data were analyzed by descriptive techniques that involved computation of proportions, and valuation data by cost-based approaches. Due to pollution and degrada- tion of the Mindu Dam, the municipality loses about 1,168,756,011 TZS (24,145.22 USD) per year for water treatment while the dam capacity decreases progressively. By using the boreholes alternative, the value of Mindu Dam by providing water is 64,074,304,515.07 TZS (27,626,570 USD) in the investment year and 39,828,547,584 TZS (17,172,659 USD) per year then after. This value was unrevealed and not considered in decision-making, leading to prolonged degradation. It is advised from this study for regulatory authorities to conduct valuation studies and use them to refine appropriate decisions to promote conservation and avoid unnecessary financial losses. The final value should also take into consideration the intrinsic value that water has, not only the direct one that is easily traceable.
Eliciting smallholder farmers’ tradeoffs and preferences on the attributes of climate smart agriculture in the breadbasket areas of Tanzania using a conjoint experiment method
(Science Publishing Group, 2015-11-13) Mussa, Kassim R.; Saria, Josephat A.; Kusiluka, Lughano J. M.; Jiwaji, Noorali T.; Gwambene, Brown; Pauline, Noah M.; Msofe, Nangware K.; Tegeje, Juma A.; Messo, Innocent
While policy and decision-makers are striving to enhance food security amidst maddening impacts of climate change, climate smart agriculture is thought of as a promising breakthrough for responding to climate change impacts in Tanzania and elsewhere in the world as it strives to increase food productivity; build resilience of agricultural systems to climate change impacts and reduce agricultural greenhouse gas emission. Studies show that agricultural sector is both, a cause and a victim of climate change. It significantly contributes greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. However, achieving climate change mitigation through agriculture without compromising food security is a huge policy and research challenge, some scientists say, it is practically impossible. This study sought to determine tradeoffs and preferences of smallholder farmers on the attributes climate smart agricultural practices, specifically modeling choices of smallholder farmers using choice experiment method. Upon estimating three different models, positive utilities were observed in high productivity, Moderate and low GHG emission as well as on moderate and high resilient farming systems. Smallholder farmers showed a complete disutility on low and moderate agricultural productivity, high GHG emission and low resilient farming systems. The models therefore justified the fact that, attaining more yield without a compromise in greenhouse gas emission reduction targets is a blue-sky dream. In order to concisely inform policy, more research on farmers’ preference and tradeoff on the attributes is needed to establish a scientific and logical progression about the tradeoffs people are willing to make with regard to the attributes of climate smart agriculture practices.
Exploring the future land use- biodiversity-climate nexus in East Africa: an application of participatory scenario analysis
(Whiterose University, 2015-11) Capitani, Claudia; Norfolk, Olivia; Platts, Philip; Burgess, Neil; Mukama, Kusaga; Mbilinyi, Boniface; Malugu, Isaac; Munishi, Pantaleo; Marchant, Rob
Climate change and land-use-land-cover change (LULCC) are expected to have major impacts on global biodiversity. In highly diverse tropical moist forests, future biodiversity trajectories will also depend on political and societal will to undertake the changes needed to reduce those impacts. We present a framework to build participatory spatially- explicit scenarios that can be used to analyse the biodiversity-climate-land-change trade- offs, and we applied at different scales in East Africa. In Tanzania, under the business-as- usual pattern of economic growth, the Eastern Arc Mountains forests and biodiversity will be heavily impacted on, with increasing pressure on protected areas. Increasing variability of rainfall and temperature are likely to impact on where the LCLCC are going to be, with the mountains likely to be refuges that are even more important for local communities. That may intensify impacts on biodiversity. In Taita Hills (Kenya) and Jimma Highlands (Ethiopia), stakeholders expected that adaptation interventions to climate change would generally improve biodiversity state. Preliminary data on birds community diversity in Taita Hills showed that though agroforestry system supports higher diversity than natural forest, species richness of rarer forest specialists remained highest within natural forests. Anticipating future conservation and agriculture interaction under climate change may contribute to set spatial priorities for intervention sites. Further investigations are required that could benefit from integrating local stakeholders’ perceptions and visions for the future.

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