The cost of urbanization: Exploring the decline of ecosystem services in growing cities
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Date
2026
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Elsevier Ltd
Abstract
This study quantifies how rapid urbanization affects key ecosystem services in five Tanzanian cities (Arusha, Dar es Salaam, Dodoma, Mbeya, and Mwanza) using a multi-city comparative framework and spatial econometric analysis. MODIS NPP and TerraClimate hydro-climate data were integrated with spatial statistics (Global/Local Moran’s I) and spatial regression models (SLM/SEM) to assess changes from 2010 to 2020. Results show substantial declines in soil water balance (25–40%) and net primary productivity-NPP (15–33%), alongside increased surface runoff (∼30%), with the strongest impacts in Dar-es-Salaam and Dodoma. Significant negative relationships (p < 0.01) between urban expansion and ecosystem services confirm strong spatial dependence and clustered degradation, particularly along peri-urban growth fronts. By moving beyond descriptive mapping to spatially explicit inference, this study links urban form to biophysical change across diverse ecological contexts. The findings provide policy-relevant evidence to guide ecosystem-based urban planning, green infrastructure, and sustainable drainage strategies in support of SDG 11 and SDG 15.
Description
Journal article
Keywords
Urbanization, Ecology services, Spatial regression, Net primary productivity, Water balance