The cost of urbanization: Exploring the decline of ecosystem services in growing cities
| dc.contributor.author | Sumari, Neema Simon | |
| dc.contributor.author | Ujoh, Fanan | |
| dc.contributor.author | Sanga, Camillius | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2026-05-13T16:54:50Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2026-05-13T16:54:50Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2026 | |
| dc.description | Journal article | |
| dc.description.abstract | This study quantifies how rapid urbanization affects key ecosystem services in five Tanzanian cities (Arusha, Dar es Salaam, Dodoma, Mbeya, and Mwanza) using a multi-city comparative framework and spatial econometric analysis. MODIS NPP and TerraClimate hydro-climate data were integrated with spatial statistics (Global/Local Moran’s I) and spatial regression models (SLM/SEM) to assess changes from 2010 to 2020. Results show substantial declines in soil water balance (25–40%) and net primary productivity-NPP (15–33%), alongside increased surface runoff (∼30%), with the strongest impacts in Dar-es-Salaam and Dodoma. Significant negative relationships (p < 0.01) between urban expansion and ecosystem services confirm strong spatial dependence and clustered degradation, particularly along peri-urban growth fronts. By moving beyond descriptive mapping to spatially explicit inference, this study links urban form to biophysical change across diverse ecological contexts. The findings provide policy-relevant evidence to guide ecosystem-based urban planning, green infrastructure, and sustainable drainage strategies in support of SDG 11 and SDG 15. | |
| dc.identifier.issn | 3050-6972 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ubtr.2026.100043 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://www.suaire.sua.ac.tz/handle/20.500.14820/7580 | |
| dc.language.iso | en | |
| dc.publisher | Elsevier Ltd | |
| dc.subject | Urbanization | |
| dc.subject | Ecology services | |
| dc.subject | Spatial regression | |
| dc.subject | Net primary productivity | |
| dc.subject | Water balance | |
| dc.title | The cost of urbanization: Exploring the decline of ecosystem services in growing cities | |
| dc.type | Article |